(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs lowered its crude price forecast for this year and 2024, citing a recent slump in oil prices due to banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows.
“The first leg down in oil prices followed Powell’s hint at a potential return to 50 points hikes on March 7th, which revived recession worries,” the bank said in a note.
“The second sharper leg down in oil prices coincided with signs of stress in the banking system and a sharp decline in bank equities and interest rates,” the bank added.
Oil prices rebounded and rose over 1% on Monday after diving to their lowest levels in 15 months as the market worried that risks in the global banking sector could spark a recession that would sap fuel demand. [O/R]
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2022 average prices per barrel for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):
Brokerage/Agency Brent WTI Date
Revised
2023 2024 2023 2024
Goldman Sachs March 18
85.00 79.00
95.00 90.00
BofA Global Research 88.00 90.00 Feb. 26
Goldman Sachs 92.00 100.00 86.00 94.00 Feb. 9
Citi Research 80.00 75.00 NA
Goldman Sachs 98.00 92.00 Dec. 13
Barclays 98.00 93.00 Oct. 21
*Commerzbank 100.00 — Oct. 11
Fitch Solutions 100.00 98.00 Oct. 6
*UBS — — Oct. 5
Morgan Stanley (base case) 105.00 102.5 Oct. 5
ANZ 104.50 103.40 NA
Standard Chartered 91.00 88.00 NA
BofA Global Research 95.00 90.00 NA
JPMorgan 98.00 94 March 15
ABN Amro 76.00 74.00 NA
* indicates end-of-period forecast
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
For a table of crude price forecasts as of Jan. 31, see
Reporting by Bengaluru Commodities desk; Editing by David Gregorio
